Modest growth in our number-one industry during the first quarter hasn't moved the Central Bank off its less-than-enthusiastic outlook for the rest of 2008, given the increasingly idle construction sector.

"Despite signs of positive developments in the tourism sector," reads the Bank's Monthly Economic and Financial Developments report for March, "indications point to a softening in economic growth in the first half of the year, as the pace of domestic and foreign-related construction activity slows and accretions to consumer spending remain relatively stable."

The analysis comes even as the country seems to be putting its fiscal house in order. Both system liquidity and external reserves have grown and the government has managed to reduce its outstanding loans and advances by leveraging the funds of its $100m bond issue.

External reserves, in fact, grew by $147.1 million, more than double the $65.0 million increase posted a year earlier.

Still, the Bank has concerns, which may largely be outside Bahamian control.

"Downside risks to the outlook remain," reads the report. They're attributable "mainly to the pace of activity in the United States economy, as well as further growth in global oil prices."

The latter continues to whip up inflation on consumer items like food, furniture and fuel, much to the chagrin of Bahamians of all stripes — from barkeeps to bankers.