By VERNON CLEMENT JONES, Guardian Business Editor

The country's auto dealers are worried cautionary words from the Central Bank on consumer spending may ultimately leave them holding the keys for a fleet of 2009 model year cars on the way to their lots.

"Manufacturers don't stock inventory, so orders that we've already made can't be canceled and if you don't sell them, you can't eat (that loss)," said Rick Lowe of the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association.

"What we'd like to see is the Central Bank consult with the business community as much in advance on the economy, to allow us to better determine our ordering."

Members greeted with some consternation the Bank's comments about consumer spending (earlier this month).

The Central Bank's caution to Bahamians came as part of a caution meant to allay concerns about the U.S. credit freeze and any spill-over effects for this market.

"All non-essential outlays and the taking on of new debt should be minimized or even deferred," writes the Bank, offering advice to consumers of all stripes worried their own economic well-being may be jeopardized by the now-global crisis spread to much of the developed world but originating with the failed and discredited subprime mortgage scheme in the States.

The Bank's caution is understandable given the stalled tourism sector and the effects months of disappointing visitor arrival numbers have had on work hours across the board in this country. Several resorts have also moved to layoff or otherwise encourage staff to take time off going into a traditionally slow fall season expected to come to a standstill.

Still, retailers of large ticket items, including appliances as well as cars, worry the message may effectively stymie even modest transactions for even those consumers financially prepared to enter into them. The current lull in business for merchants has only heightened those concerns.

The Minister of State for Finance appeared to answer their concerns last week, asking Bahamian consumers to put the Central Bank commentary in context.

"I think the Bank is essentially saying to people, listen you have to assess your own credit situation and there is a level of indebtedness that is prohibitive, that is problematic in good and bad times," he told Guardian Business. "You don't want to go and extend yourself further because the effect of that will be to really paralyze you financially, and so I think that's the context of their comment. That's the reasonable issue and every man [and] woman has to assess that for himself or herself."

Ironically, the Bank's very serious caution came on the heels of monthly economic reports in which, say many critics, the institution effectively downplayed the global economic crisis and the very telling effects it had already begun to have on this small jurisdiction.

Lowe, however, is more focused on winning as much advanced notice from the Central Bank and other government financial service institutions of future economic challenges — even as they enter their radar screens.

That kind of lead-time — to say nothing of the intelligence, itself — would allow him and other auto dealers to better adapt their own buying to the economic climate forecast for the short and long-term.

It's a request that Central Bank autonomy, notwithstanding, Lowe argues is reasonable and would help avoid the possible glut of inventory many may be forced to sit on in 2009.

Dealers, in fact, make their purchases months in advance of their shipment dates. They'll also pay the government duty on those vehicles — usually more than 25 percent — prior to selling them and even if those sales never take place.

It's a harsh reality many in Lowe's business are now facing with new car purchases down some 50 percent last August compared to the same 2007 period.