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Now, on to Copenhagen By Simon From Kyoto to New York City to Port of Spain, and now on to Copenhagen, the governments of the world and the international community are wrestling not only with the complex science of climate change, but as complex, the economic and political consequences of rising temperatures: that of the planet and of the combatants arguing over perhaps one of the more consequential issues ever for humankind. While debate continues at various levels, the international scientific and political consensus is that urgent action is needed to address climate change. But a consensus on the need for action does not necessarily translate into an agreement on what actions should be taken, and when, and by whom. The debate over climate change is ethical in nature, about core human values and competing demands, biblical in proportion, raising critical issues of social and environmental justice within and between nation states, reaching into domestic politics and international relations. They are about the distribution of political power and economic resources. Whatever agreement is reached at Copenhagen will be arrived at by one of the oldest arts of human civilization: politics. This is why Copenhagen is primarily a summit of world leaders, not scientists, though the latter will play a critical role. ACHIEVEMENTS Of course, for some, politics is usually a dirty word, its carbon footprint too outsized. Or so has been the conceit of those who blame politicians for just about everything that goes wrong while rarely crediting politicians and politics with the many achievements of human civilization. In the end, the politics of climate change involves not only politicians but also the wider civil society, business interests and the demands of citizens with various and often deeply conflicting points of view on the nature of, and how to respond to, this extraordinarily complex issue. The case of Australia is instructive. Labour Prime Minister Kevin Rudd came into office two years ago reversing the decision of former Prime Minister John Howard's Liberal/National Coalition not to sign the Kyoto Protocol. Mr. Rudd not only signed Kyoto soon after his election, he also introduced legislation to significantly lower Australia's carbon emissions prior to Copenhagen. After months of intense debate across Australia and in the federal parliament, Rudd thought he had a deal with the opposition, led by its then Leader Malcolm Turnbull. But following the recent Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Trinidad and Tobago and meetings with President Obama in Washington, Mr. Rudd got word that the climate change sceptics had taken over the opposition, dumping Mr. Turnbull for Tony Abbott, the now sceptic-in-chief. This is significant because both chambers of the Australian federal parliament are elected, with the opposition controlling the upper chamber which last week voted down the landmark emissions trading standards legislation designed to lower Down Under's carbon footprint. This has handed Mr. Rudd the trigger for a double dissolution of parliament and the opportunity not only to secure majorities in both chambers, but also to push for more vigorous emissions standards and push the opposition further into the political wilderness or outback, this being Australia. The outcome of an expected general election will not only be significant for Australia, it will also send a signal to other industrial democracies on how far voters and various constituencies such as farmers and business interests are willing to go as the pushing and shoving intensifies over climate change. MILESTONES Kyoto and the other aforementioned cities represent milestones and efforts to reduce the carbon emissions which are heating our planet and fuelling fierce debates over how these emissions are affecting global climate and what to do about such climate change. In Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol or United Nations Framework on Climate Change was initially adopted with the aim of combating global warming. As of October 2009, 187 countries have adopted and signed the protocol, The Bahamas being the eighth country to sign in 1999, a decade ago. In September of this year United Nation's Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon summoned world leaders to New York to build momentum for the UN's 15th Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, a meeting aimed at reaching a more comprehensive successor agreement to Kyoto. Many interesting things have happened on the way to the Copenhagen forum. To dramatize the effects of climate change on their countries, the governments of Nepal and the Maldives have held cabinet meetings at highly symbolical venues. In the case of the small mountain nation, at a base camp at Mount Everest to highlight melting ice caps; and in the case of the small island nation, underwater to highlight rising sea levels. But the small and mid-size nations of the world are not content to spotlight the effects of climate change through such public relations exercises, as important as they are in our shared fight for survival. They are also pursuing a coordinated diplomatic strategy by joining voices in various international forums. ALLIANCE One of those forums, of which The Bahamas is a member, and in which Caricom plays a critical role is the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), "a coalition of small island and low-lying coastal countries that share similar development challenges and concerns about the environment, especially their vulnerability to the adverse effects of global climate change. "It functions primarily as an ad hoc lobby and negotiating voice for small island developing states (SIDS) within the United Nations system [and] has a membership of 42 states and observers, drawn from all oceans and regions of the world ... " Combined, SIDS communities make up approximately five percent of the global population. While this five percent is experiencing, literally, some of the initial shock waves in the form of rising sea levels and punishing storms, the other 95 percent is and will continue to experience its own shock waves. Those of us at the water's and razor's edge will not only be engulfed more quickly than the principal carbon emitters in the developed and industrializing countries, we are also at their mercy as regards a global solution for a crisis mostly of their making. On the road to Copenhagen, leaders from small, medium and larger states made an important stop in Port of Spain, Trinidad, two weeks ago, for the biennial CHOGM, where they arrived at a Climate Change Consensus in preparation for their summit in the Danish capital. That meeting was singled out by the White House for that accord and the significance of the event. Among CHOGM's special guests were the UN Secretary General, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the host of the Copenhagen conference, Denmark's Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, all working to marshal fellow world leaders for what many hope will be a summit with stronger targets than Kyoto. Added to that momentum are behind-the-scenes negotiations, including an American announcement of a more vigorous emissions reduction target and "China and India [having] for the first time set targets to reduce their carbon intensity". ADAPTATION There also appears to be "an emerging consensus that a core element of the Copenhagen accord should be to mobilize $10 billion a year by 2012 to support adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, particularly the most vulnerable and least developed countries that could be destabilized by the impacts of climate change." How much of those funds ever materialize is another matter. Still, while Copenhagen will not be the more vigorous deal many environmentalists and others desire, it may be more significant than many expected just a few weeks ago. Once in Denmark world leaders, including our own Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham, will be joined by President Obama on December 18th, after having received the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize and delivering his Nobel Address on December 10th. In announcing Mr. Obama as the 98th individual recipient of the prize, the Nobel Committee noted: "Thanks to Obama's initiative, the USA is now playing a more constructive role in meeting the great climatic challenges the world is confronting." While Mr. Obama may receive that prize in Oslo, Norway, a hop, skip and a jump from the Danish capital, the larger prize will be working with his fellow world leaders towards a more vigorous accord at Copenhagen, with the ultimate prize being a shared planet saved from environmental and related disasters. This is a prize in which the present and future generations of humankind may all share. frontporchguardian@gmail.com www.bahamapundit.com Tuesday December 08, 2009